A League Picks – Round 10

Last week’s lock of the week was the only one I got right, but due to my new strategy, I won more money than I laid out, so I’ll be sticking with the strategy for another week.

I start this week with the ledger at -$17.98

Victory v Perth

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How the mighty have fallen. Once considered title favourites while Ange was in charge, Kevin Muscat’s (officially the dirtiest player the world has seen) reign has seen them fall to equal 6th with only 7 points gained from a possible 18 in his time in charge. If he can’t beat Perth this week, questions will begin to be asked of how much he learned from Postecoglu, and how much he learned from Mehmet. Perth are sitting around about where I would expect them to be given their goal scoring woes. As mentioned in Round 8, Perth are suffering from “Sydney FC Syndrome” and last week was the first time in 11 matches that they scored more than one goal in a match. All that said, I’m going to back against Muscat and put a dollar on the draw (at $3.85)

Wellington v Brisbane

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Has to be the lock of the week. Equal last hosting first. A glorified P.E. Teacher against a well-rounded tactician. A team that has conceded 13 goals in 8 matches against a team that has scored 17 in 9. Maltese International Manny Muscat against anyone. $6 on Brisbane to win (at $1.83)

Adelaide v Mariners

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The Reds haven’t had much luck this season. But they also haven’t been very good. Even if the ball had fallen their way a bit more often they’d still be in 8th. The Mariners were played into form by Sydney FC last week, and they simply have too many players that know how to win.* I’m putting a dollar on the half/fulltime double of Draw/Mariners (at $5.00)

Jets v Wanderers

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A team that somehow keeps managing to grab wins against a team that has taken just 2 points from a possible 9 in the last 3 weeks. In spite of still sitting in 3rd spot, I simply can’t believe that the listless side that looked SO poor against an average Sydney FC side twice already this year are anything near a real contender. All the pressure is on the Wanderers here in the middle of a mini slump at the moment and playing a team that should be an easy win regardless of the venue. I’m still not convinced of Western Sydney’s ability to handle pressure, and it will only increase if this slump continues. I think they’ll need some luck to win this. I’m going to put my dollar on a draw (at $3.30)

Sydney v Heart

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Only one team has won more games than Sydney FC this season. But only two teams have lost more than them too. Sydney’s dream draw of late continues as they play the competitions bottom team who are still winless after 9 rounds, and haven’t won away from home since a Hitler moustache was called a Charlie Chaplin moustache. The last time these two teams played, Heart looked like a park football team, but their form has improved while Sydney has regressed. I’m putting my final dollar on a big upset here with the Heart to win (at $4.35) and a whole heap of pressure to fall back on Frank Farina.

The ledger sits at -$27.98

Gamble Responsibly

 

 

*Just on this, I’m not sure that Moss has actually done anything yet. They look exactly the same as they always have, just not as good, because they’ve lost some players. Jury is still out on him as a manager for mine.

**How amazing is Mark Bridge’s head in this photo?

A League Picks – Round 9

A new week and a new strategy.

My win last week was $8.82 leaving the ledger at -$19.20 heading into round nine.

So I’m going to have to start taking drastic measures to get myself back to at least even.

It’s time for strategy number…I’ve lost count.

Adelaide v Brisbane

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My lock of the week this week. Adelaide’s defence has more holes in it than the plot of Lost* and Brisbane are the right team to poke through them. The only real question here is how much lighter can Gombau’s eyebrows get? I’m putting $6 on the Roar to take this one (at $1.87). Unfortunately there is no current market on the eyebrows.

Perth v Wellington

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The Distance Derby is on again and this time there is even less at stake than normal. Both sides sit outside the top 6, deservedly, and I’d be surprised if the Phoenix even bring their media manager and kit man let alone any fans for this match against their “traditional rivals”. So in order to put SOME sort of intrigue into this match, I’m going for a more exotic bet. I’m putting a dollar on the first goal being scored between minute 31 and the end of the first half (at $4.35)

Wanderers v Heart

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The two ‘other’ teams from the countries two biggest cities. Some ridiculous refereeing and wonder strikes saved Aloisi from another defeat and what would SURELY be the seasons first head coach sacking last week, but overall the Heart showed little improvement. Here they come up against a Wanderers team in their first vague slump, but NRMAIWSWFC are back in the one place that they are a dominant force. NSW. I’m going to pick the score here as Western Sydney 2 to beat Melbourne 1 (at $8.00)

Mariners v Sydney FC

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There is a fair bit going on at the Mariners of late and that could see them a little unsettled, and the result of this match could see them sky rocket up the ladder (with a game in hand) or plummet out of the top 6 and need to have a hard look at themselves. On the other hand, Sydney have just come off a record winning streak (a whole 4 matches) against mostly awful opposition that has ‘supercoach’ Farina breathing a little easier. The result of this match could tell us a lot about BOTH teams. But I’m going for a first goalscorer here and putting a dollar on McGlinchey (at $8.00)**

Victory v Jets

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Not even career ender Kevin Muscat could turn this teams fortunes around so quickly that they would lose at home to the Jets…Right? the final dollar will go on Melbourne to win by 2 or more (at $2.90)

Ledger at -$29.20

Gamble Responsibly

 

 

*There’s a timely reference for you. Lost. Cutting edge stuff here.

**Amazingly, with Delps out, Sydney don’t have a single player paying less than $10 to score first. CCM on the other hand, have 7 players paying less than $10. Also, in spite of his multi week ban, Tiago is still listed as an option.

A League Picks – Round 8

With just 2 of my minor bets coming through last week I start this round in a poor position with just -$18.02 on the ledger.

Time for some new tactics

Mariners v Victory

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Melbourne haven’t travelled well since Muscat took the reigns losing both away games under the thug in a suit, and he appears to be in need of an experiences assistant. Luckily the coach he is facing this weekend is one and with both teams looking fairly evenly matched, it may come down to tactics. I’m going with the experience of Moss and putting a dollar on the Mariners to win (at $2.05)

Brisbane v Perth

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No matter what I do, I just can’t quite shake the feeling that there is something about being at the Perth Glory Football Club that turns you from a talented footballer into a meandering mess. I call it the Sydney FC syndrome. Brisbane on the other hand is riding their momentum to first place in the league. They may have peaked too early, and it was more than a little concerning that they celebrated last weeks victory over the Wanderers like a finals match, but they will surely have too much for Perth at home in this one. I’m putting $6 on the Roar (at $1.47)

Sydney v Newcastle

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Both of these teams should have vertigo by now with how undeservedly high they are on the table. The problem is, I can’t work out which team deserves to be here the least. SO I’m going to play it safe with a dollar bet on Del Piero to score first (at $5.50)

Phoenix v Wanderers

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Wellington gave Western Sydney a run for their money the last time these two teams met, and that was on the hallowed turf of Parramatta Stadium. This time at the Cake Tun, you would expect Wullington to go one further, and with the Wanderers travelling outside NSW 2 weeks in a row for the first time since January this year and only the second time in their history, I’m going to go for the big upset here and putting a dollar on Wellington to pick up the unlikeliest of wins (at $3.40)

Heart v Adelaide

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It seems like every week we have a match where both coaches need to win to keep their job, yet every week Aloisi stays employed. Gombau won’t lose his job if United lose, but questions will begin to be asked of his philosophy and its effectiveness. Either way I’m putting my last dollar on Adelaide to come through with a close one goal win (at $4.60)

Ledger now at -$28.02

Gamble Responsibly

A League Picks – Round 7

Only got one winner last week in the Adelaide v Perth Draw, which netted me the $8.50 return, leaving the ledger -$14.96 heading into this full round

So with my fresh $10 bill to spend, I’l dive head first into this weeks matches.

Roar v Wanderers

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It will be interesting to see which team the travelling Barmy Army fans go for when they inevitably turn up to show off their sunburn and annoy the general public. The top of the table clash may not tell us much about the way the season will shape up, but it’s an early test for both sides to see where they are at and where they need to improve. This is really tough to call. I’m going to have $1 on Western Sydney (at $2.70) and $1 on the draw (at $3.40)

Sydney v Wellington

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For the first time this season, I genuinely think that Sydney have a chance of winning their match. This of course means they are almost certainly doomed. So to avoid putting any further jinx on them, I’m not going to bet on the result here. I am going to bet on what has got to be a sure thing given Sydney got a clean sheet last week and surely can’t get 2 in a row. $2 on both teams to score (at $1.72)

Victory v Adelaide

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After a 2 week road trip to Sydney and Lord of the Fouls, Kevin Muscat, struggling with the top job, Melbourne will look to make a statement at home against their traditional rivals. Adelaide are improving, but Melbourne will surely bounce back this week. $2 on the Victory to have a victory (at $1.75)

Glory v Mariners

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The new era without Arnold begins in Perth, and it has to be said, Central Coast have been struggling this season.* Perth have some points on the board, but not much else. I wish there was a betting option for this to be a dour and awful game of football, because I’d put the house on that. But the closes I’ve got to that is to put my $2 on a 0-0 draw (at $9.50)

Newcastle v Heart

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Newcastle hosted the first professional underwater football match in Australia last weekend while Heart played as badly as I’ve seen any team play in this competition this season. I hope they don’t bother televising this. It could ruin any future broadcast deals. Friday night will decide who is the best team in the league right now, but this will decide the worst team** $2 to go on the draw (at $3.55)

Ledger sits at -$24.96

Gamble Responsibly

 

 

 

*For mine, this is why Arnold has been pursuing the o/s move so hard. His stock is high after last seasons Grand Final win. A poor season and he’s back to being just another A League coach.

**In spite of the fact that the Jets are somehow currently 3rd on the ladder. Ridiculous.

A League Picks – Round 6

I only won on two of the bets last week – Sydney and the Wanderers – which only netted me $6.34 leaving me at -$13.46.

There are only 4 matches this week so I’m going to keep it simple for once and just go for winners (and draws), without the exotic bets. They’ll be back next week though, particularly after this week ends up being a massive failure.*

So onto this weeks matches

Heart v Sydney

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The Lucas Neill Cup is up for grabs this week, Melbourne Heart are overdue for a win, Sydney won last game and are playing away from home. This one writes itself. Whichever coach loses this one will really start to feel the pressure of the guillotine hanging over their coaching careers**

I’ll put $2.50 on Melbourne to win this (at $2.30)

Perth v Adelaide

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Perth are really ugly and fairly poor at football, but are managing to sneak out some results. Adelaide are good to watch, promising, and not a terrible football side at all, but can’t seem to pick up a result anywhere lately. One the one hand, Adelaide’s one win this season was against Perth, but on the other hand, they just lost to the worst team in the competition, Newcastle (who to be fair, have shown improvement lately).

I like the odd on the draw here ($3.40), so I’ll put my $2.50 there.

Wanderers v Victory

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The TAB are not giving out odds on a terrorist attack hitting Parramatta stadium during this game, which is what I’d really like to bet on, so instead I’m going to have to analyse the game. The Victory are too good a team (even with Muscat at the helm) to come on a 2 week trip to Sydney and leave without any points, but the Wanderers have the globes most amazing supporters on their side, so this could be a tough one to call. But I’m going out on a limb here and saying that Western Sydney are due for a loss, and after the soft open to the season that they’ve had, will drop their first game of the season to Melbourne. But I’m not THAT confident, so $1 on the Victory to win (at $4.50)

Newcastle v Brisbane

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This one is the worst team in the league (who, again, have shown some improvement of late) against the best team in the league right now. It’s almost the definition of free money. Lock of the week. etc etc.  I’m putting $4 on Brisbane (at a criminal $2.40)

Ledger at -$23.46

Gamble Responsibly

 

 

 

*It will be. I’ll bet you that it will be. Even if I win, I lose.

**Actually that’s really harsh to call time on Aloisi’s whole coaching career if he’s turfed from the Heart. Once Farina’s gone from Sydney his career is surely over though.

A League Picks – Round 5

Well I had my best week so far last week winning a whole $12.65 back from my $10 gambled.

I should do this professionally.

Ledger before starting this weeks bets is at -$9.80

 

Heart v Wanderers

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The Wanderers have started to hit their straps with their come from behind win last week, and The Heart remain rooted to the foot of the table. The only spanner in the works is that this is the first time in a VERY long time (since the 16th of March) that Western Sydney have played a competitive game outside of NSW and therefore away from their 12th man and inventors of active support, the RBB. What effect this has on the Wanderers is unknown, but I’m guessing that they’ll brush that aside and still take the 3 points. It’s been 11 months since anyone not named Central Coast beat them, so I’ll put $2 on the Wanderers to win (at $1.72) and just in case they do struggle with it, I’ll have a $1 insurance bet on the draw (at $3.60)

 

Wellington v Perth

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Perth are hard to get a grip on at the moment. They’ve looked very capable at times, and then completely devoid of any ability to play football whatsoever at many, many other times. Then on the other end of the spectrum, Wellington looked like a park football team for the first 30 minutes against Melbourne last week, but have looked a far better team for the other 330 minutes of this season, in spite of still being winless. On top of that, the trip from Perth to Wellington is brutal, so there are a lot of factors to consider here. With Smeltz back and both teams defences looking a bit shaky, I think that my best bet is to go for $1 on Over 3.5 Goals scored (at $3.30)

 

Adelaide v Newcastle

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What a contrast of styles we have on our hands here. Gombau is bringing in a new revolution at Adelaide as they learn to keep the ball on the deck and play it out from the back, while Newcastle played their first bit of actual football for the year in the F3 derby last weekend. I expect them to revert back to type for their trip to Adelaide as they chase the coveted 0-0 draw away from home. Adelaide’s start to the season may have seen an improvement in style, but the results have not yet come through for them, with only 1 win and 1 (very lucky) draw to their name. But that can be deceiving. wince winning their round one clash with Perth, the draw has been unkind, placing them up against the top 3 sides from last season in consecutive weeks. I’m going to put $2 on Adelaide to win (at $1.87) and an extra $1 bet on the halftime draw into Adelaide winning (at $4.25)

 

Sydney v Victory

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This is a tough match to place a bet on. I’ve had my say on the Frank Farina rant from yesterday already, and only time will tell if it was the fading rantings of a mad man or some sort of motivational masterstroke, but regardless of any of that, there is simply nothing inside me that can make me bet on Melbourne Victory to beat Sydney FC. Even if it’s easy money. I’m putting a dollar on Sydney FC to win (at $2.90)

 

Mariners v Roar

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The grand final rivals of seasons past find themselves both in the title conversation early on again this season. The Roar have come out and tried to flash their title credentials early and often this season while the Mariners look like they are just easing their way into this season with the knowledge that the finals and then the Asian Champions League is a long way away. Perhaps this home game is what it will take to get them to kick their season into gear (though if they couldn’t get up for a win in the derby last week or the sellout season opener then perhaps they can’t do it here either). I’m just going to put the remaining $2 on a Mariners win (at $2.30)

 

Ledger sits at $-19.80

Gamble Responsibly

A League Picks – Round 4

I finally came out of a round winning more than the $10 I bet!

My $5 on Sydney to lose and my $1 on Victory to win got me $11.85 which mean my ledger opens this week at -$12.45

I still have a long way to go…

So this weeks bets…

Wanderers v Adelaide

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Western Sydney haven’t started the season as well as the ladder might suggest. The only team they’ve actually beaten is the Frank Farina’d Sydney FC – which is about as difficult as convincing Craig Foster to write another awful article with an unnecessary reference to Barcelona in it. On the other hand Adelaide are a work in progress who can look great one minute and terrible the next. I’m not confident of anything here so I’ll put $1 on a draw (at $4.00)

Sydney v Perth

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Sydney are an awful, awful football team right now. That’s all I can say without going on an expletive laden rant about Anthony Crea’s complete lack of understanding of how the human body works. Betting against Sydney at the moment is just free money so I’m going all out and putting $6 on Perth to win (at $1.85)

Newcastle v Mariners

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We’ve had the sellout Melbourne and Sydney derbies so far this season, and next up we have the world renowned F3 derby. I hear that the hill will be packed for this one. It will be a shame when the Jets do their footballing impression of Thursday FC and try to bore everyone into a coma. I’m putting my dollar here on The Mariners to win by 2 or more goals (at $3.15)

Roar v Heart

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Melbourne Heart have comfortably taken up their spot near the foot of the totem pole as the 3rd worst team in the competition and given how poorly they play away from home, combined with Brisbane’s form so far this season, there’s only one way this can go. But the TAB seems to know this as well and the odds are too short to bother with a straight win, so in an effort to get some bang for my literal buck, I’m putting my dollar here on Brisbane to win 2-0 (at $6.00)

Victory v Phoenix

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This one is a bit of a mystery. How will the Victory react to losing Ange? How will Merrick feel coaching against the club where he made his name? Could footballing thug Kevin Muscat look any more like an orc? All pressing questions but without the answers, this is a toss up. I’ll just play it safe and put my dollar on Melbourne to win (at $1.55)

Ledger sits at -$22.45

Gamble Responsibly