Bet of the Week Round 20

I finally had a big win!

It only took all season, but I had a $21.50 win last week by backing Sydney to beat Perth, and it has put the kitty at a much more respectable negative $9.89!

This week’s match of the week sees Perth host the Western Sydney Wanderers.

Perth have been on a horror run and there are few things more humiliating in the A League right now than losing to Sydney FC. They have a full week to recover from their travels of the last few weeks and get to play at home again which should make them a little fresher heading into this match. The Glory lost to the Wanderers in Parramatta not too long ago to help the Wanderers out of a bit of a slump, but Perth away from home are a different proposition from when they play at NIB stadium. Away from home they consistently lose, but in the West, they are one of the competitions best at getting a draw. A scary proposition for travelling teams, I know. The Glory haven’t lost at home since round 7. Something to consider.

The Wanderers have only played 2 games since their last encounter with Perth due to their Round 19 game with the Victory being moved. I previously mentioned that Western Sydney’s win over the Glory in Round 16 helped them out of a slump. But that isn’t entirely true. Since that game they’ve had 2 draws, and overall since Christmas the only team other than Perth that they have beaten is lowly Sydney FC. In spite of all this, and due to the fact that the A-League is in a state of awfulness this season, they remain in a Champions League spot and are more than likely the 2^nd best team in the league.*

So with all that information, and having a look at the odds, I am going to put $10 on a draw between these two (at $3.35)

A win here would see me in the positive for the first time this season!

Gamble Responsibly!

 

 

 

*By the way, ever since I wrote that article about there being only 3 good teams, Adelaide have emerged as not just the 4^th best team in the league, but possibly the 2^nd or 3^rd best if they can keep this up.

Bet of the Week Round 19

A late Wanderers goal ruined my first “Bet of the Week” but managed to JUST keep the premiership title fight alive.

It leaves the kitty at a paltry negative $31.39

So I move on to this week’s clash of the titans…

 

Sydney FC v Perth Glory

 

Ok so I lied. It’s not really a clash of the titans, more a race for 7^th spot.

First up is Sydney. What a week it has been for the Sky Blues. From another dismal home performance that was punctuated by the largest protest that The Cove has ever partaken in – calling for the head of the Coach, CEO and Chariman all at once – followed by a walkout due to apparent club instructions to eject peaceful alleged protesters. None of it was pretty, but the real question is was it effective? In terms of media traction it appears as though it was very effective, with multiple articles being written each day in both the mainstream media as well as the football media and ‘blogosphere’* much to the chagrin of Melbourne Victory supporters who have been protesting all year without getting anywhere. Additionally it has given Cove leaders an audience with the club to discuss the issues. Seems like the protest did its job to me.

On the field, only time will tell if Frank is a good enough man manager (as is claimed) to use this to fire up his team, or if it will even have any effect – positive or negative – on the players. It appears almost certain that Nick Carle and Matt Thompson will miss this weekend’s clash as the disciplinary action Farina attempted to take has been stopped by the PFA**. This means that Sydney will head into the match with a very inexperienced midfield, who could be given the chance to make up for their first half last week, where they were hooked at the interval. But this is Sydney, so who knows what will happen. I personally expect to see either a marked improvement from the players or a complete and utter failure which would expedite the removal of the head coach. The performance may end up being a reflection of the players feelings towards the boss. If they really want him to stay, they can step up and try to save him. If they don’t want him to stay…

As for Perth, they have had a rough week of their own. They had to travel to Albury to take on Melbourne Heart on Sunday in 40 degree heat. To do this, they had to take a 5 hour flight from Perth to Melbourne, a 4 hour bus trip to Albury, run around for an hour and a half in blistering hot weather, take a 4 hour bus ride back to Melbourne (with obligatory McDonalds stop), followed by a 4 hour flight to Perth. Then less than a week later they have to take a 5 hour flight to Sydney to play this Saturday. I’m no expert on the human body, but something tells me that Perth might have a bit of trouble getting up for this one. They have struggled of late as it is and Sydney are the type of team that only play well if they get their tails up early. This situation that the Glory are in physically could be the stimulus for Sydney to score an early goal and get on top and produce the marked improvement that I mentioned earlier.

This coupled with the fact that a win for Sydney would see at least a little bit of pressure relieved from Farina and delay the inevitable end of his tenure in charge at Sydney, means that I will be putting my $10 on Sydney to win (at $2.15)***

 Gamble Responsibly

 

 

 

*What a fantastically shit word that is.

**And make no mistake, the PFA stopped it, not the club.

***How Sydney are the favourites here baffles me. Spider has to be rigging this. Expect a shocker from Vedran on the weekend.

What’s wrong with the A-League?‏

As you probably didn’t even notice, there were no A-League tips last week.

There are several reasons for this, but ultimately, the biggest one is that I’m not enjoying doing it in the current format any more.

So going forward, there will be a single $10 Bet Of The Week that I will be doing and hopefully I can begin enjoying this again.

I can usually find at least one game a week that I’m looking forward to!

But we’ll get to that at the end here.

The real issue that needs to be addressed is why is the A-League so dull that I’m not enjoying it this year?

 

As someone that has followed the league very closely since its inception, I am finding this season to be one of the least interesting on record, and there are several smaller factors that are causing this. The minor ones in descending order…

1.       The marquee signings of last season are all a year older and a year less effective – though still occasionally show flashes of brilliance – and the excitement of seeing these guys in the league has worn off after repeat viewings.

2.       In a 10 team league, match ups get repeated. A lot. This isn’t unique to this season, but last year the addition of Western Sydney spiced things up a bit. This year the trip to Parramatta has lost a bit of its ‘new toy’ sheen

3.       I can’t deny that the poor form of my Sydney FC has obviously had an impact on my enjoyment, but it really is only a minor factor – we have been terrible for years after all…

4.       Most teams don’t seem to have any consistency of game plan from week to week. It seems like a great “good luck lads” before each match and hope for the best. It feels like park football.

Which brings me to the biggest reason that the A-League has been so dull this season.

*drumroll*

Almost every single team sucks.

We are two thirds of the way through the season, and at a point where you can make an accurate judgement on the teams this season.

There is one good team, one pretty good team, one not bad team, and 7 varying degrees of bad teams.

Just to confirm what you should already know, Brisbane is the good team, Western Sydney is the pretty good team and Central Coast is the not bad team*.

Everyone else is rubbish.

Don’t believe me?

Tell me who is the 4^th best team in the league? I’m not sure any teams own fans would be confidently claiming that spot.

Victory probably had the best claim to it until 3 weeks ago when they suffered successive 5-0 losses to fellow terrible teams Wellington and Sydney. Rubbish team.

Who else is in contention?

Sydney? They had the aforementioned 5-0 drubbing of their arch rivals, but followed it up by losing to a 10 man, bottom of the table Melbourne Heart side. Not to mention the 1 draw and 4 losses that preceded those two matches. Rubbish team.

Perth have won 5 games from 17**and have been just as uninspiring under their new coach as they were their old. Rubbish.

Adelaide have improved in the second half of the season and have a couple of big scalps, but still struggle against their fellow strugglers. Rubbish with potential.

Wellington are probably the form team of the competition with only 1 loss in their last 7 matches, but that doesn’t mean you can just discount the 10 matches they went without a win to start the season. They could easily turn back to that and in spite of their form are still only 3 from the bottom. Rubbish.

Newcastle have been rubbish from day one and haven’t looked impressive in the few games that they have managed to sneak a win. Rubbish.

Heart haven’t lost in three weeks and that is considered a major achievement for them. Rubbish.

There is no question 70% of the teams in the league are awful – even by the leagues often low standards. You could easily talk me into a top 3 for this season rather than the current top 6, just to put everyone out of their misery.

The only question here is why? Why are these teams so terrible?

The answer in all cases has to do with the coaching.

4 of the 7 teams have changed their manager since the start of the season.

1 team is openly in a rebuilding phase under a manager that came in during the offseason – and learning a new way of playing does take time. The other 2 teams have tried to go forwards by going backwards and hired a coach that was considered past it when sacked from his previous A League job and done nothing to show any evidence of improvement since then. Neither of those coaches is considered a great tactician and they rely on the old fashioned “hard work” and “get stuck in” to get results. As we’ve seen, that can work in fits and starts, but when the luck runs out, so do the wins.

I’ve said before that in a salary capped league, the most important appointment is the Manager. Why is this so hard for a football club board to see?

The teams that have changed coaches since the start of this season have had varying reasons for doing so – not all of which were their own doing – but it’s the manner of choosing their replacements that concerns the most.

Perth, Newcastle, Mariners and both of the Melbourne’s ALL went with “the guy who was already here” when looking for a new coach this season. I understand the argument for consistency given a mid-year switch, but every one of them has been given the job for at least the remainder of the season. There are no restrictions on who you appoint as your head coach outside of having the relevant qualifications. No amount of money too big. No restrictions on nationality. No quota’s to fill at all, and yet for the most important job at the club, all 5 of them went with the guy who was already on the payroll.

In playing terms it is the equivalent of signing your star youth league player as your marquee. It makes no sense to just go with the nearest guy when the options are so large.

As Adelaide’s ambitious appointment of Josep Gombau has shown, there are plenty of managers out there that are looking for an opportunity to coach a first team at this level – and teams need to realise that they aren’t all Australian.

It was the popular opinion in the media over the last couple of years that to be successful in the A-League, you needed to have an Australian coach. This was entirely down to 2 successful Australian managers in Ange Postecoglu and Graham Arnold as well as Tony Popvic’s run last season. The narrative was also skewed by conveniently counting foreign managers who had been here a long time as “Aussies” as if they were famous New Zealand entertainers***

The truth is that the Premiers Plate has gone to 4 Australians and 4 Foreigners and the Championship has been split 4 and 4 as well.

Gombau has shown with the performance of his Australian recruits that the old line of needing an Australian to know the “local market” is another media driven agenda^

The truth is that the nationality of a candidate shouldn’t come into consideration for an A-League job. It needs to be based purely on their abilities and qualifications. 

But enough of that tangent. The point is that there are only two ways to improve a football club. One is money and the other is management. No club – not even Melbourne Heart/City – will be able to spend enough money to make an impact in a salary capped league like this without also investing in quality management. The sooner the powers that be realise this the better For the sake of each club as well as the health of the entire league.

 

Moving on to my bet of the week!

My bets from two weeks ago went fairly well in all where I won a total of $13.46 leaving my ledger at the start of this week at -$21.39 as we start the new format.

I can’t resist the marquee match up of the top 2 teams in the league this week. Western Sydney host Brisbane and even this far out from the finals, it could be considered a title decider. A win for the Wanderers would see them only 4 points off the top spot and will have them regain the psychological edge that they lost after being soundly beaten at Suncorp earlier this season. If the Roar are to get up they will give themselves a 10 point gap on their biggest contenders and the title race is over.

The Wanderers have struggled with only 1 win in their last 4 matches and have had trouble in their marquee matches this year with only 2 wins from their 5 matches against the other teams in the top 4 while Brisbane have won 4 of their 5 equivalent matches. Just to put the nail in the coffin of this year’s already dull Premiership, I’m putting my $10 on the Roar to win (at $2.75)

Gamble Responsibly

 

 

 

*Given they have just lost even more players and the replacements are fairly unknown in terms of A League quality, they may not even deserve this faint praise

**As have Wellington, Newcastle and Adelaide

***Let’s face it, it’s only a matter of time before Lorde is ‘one of us’

^A cynic would say that the media drives this to keep their old pals in positions of power to help them get inside information for their stories. But I’m not a Cynic.

On Coaching In The A-League

“So are Sydney going to sack their coach, yet again?”

It’s a sentence that I repeatedly heard earlier this season after people were calling for Frank Farina’s head through a string of losses and disappointing play.* It came from people attempting to mock me and my fellow Sydney fans for the so called instability at the management level of the club.

The problem here is twofold. Firstly, sticking with a coach purely because you’ve sacked too many coaches in the past is lunacy. If the coach is not the right man for the job, keeping him only breeds mediocrity at best and abject failure at worst. Secondly, I’m not so sure that this reputation for sacking coaches at Sydney is all that warranted – particularly given the recent spate of sackings in the A-League. Regardless, the perception is there that if you take the Sydney job, you’re only keeping the seat warm for the next guy and that is damaging in attempting to attract top quality coaches to the club.

It all started after Sydney won the inaugural toilet seat and didn’t renew Pierre Littbarski’s contract. Littbarski met all targets required of him – Qualify for World Club Championship, win the A-League, you know, just some simple, unambitious performance metrics. Due to his success, he asked for a raise. The Sydney FC board wanted to give him a pay cut. Thus began the reputation of the Sydney Coaching Merry Go Round.** But there have been a lot of sackings across the board since this league began. So I want to compare some of the records of the other teams that have been here since the beginning

The first thing I want to note here is that Littbarski wasn’t actually sacked, but given the insulting nature of the offer (given his performance), I’m going to count it as a sacking when I lay this all out. The second thing is that as a ground rule, I’m not going to count a “caretaker” coach as a manager unless they go on to be given the top job on a permanent basis. It’s a ridiculously unfair way to twist statistics to your favour if you are trying to talk up the high coaching turnover rate. Lastly, just because someone has been the manager at a club before, doesn’t mean that they only get counted once. As long as someone else coached in between the 2 stints, that is a managerial change…

Sydney FC

I’ll start with the boys in blue since they are the reason this topic has come up and what I will be comparing everyone else to. Sydney have had a total of 7 head coaches over these 8 and a half seasons and even including Littbarski as a “sacking” they have only sacked 4 managers and the last of them was in January 2009. 5 years ago. On average they sack a coach once every 2.125 seasons. Not a picture of coaching stability, but not outrageous given most coaches contracts these days are only done 2 or 3 years at a time anyway.

Newcastle Jets

Having just sacked Van Egmond as their 2 time manager the Jets have just made their 6^th managerial appointment. Only one less than Sydney.*** 4 of those managers have been sacked, the same number as Sydney, with the most recent just this week. They also average a sacking every 2.125 seasons. Given the low pressure that come along with the Newcastle job, for them to sack the same number of managers as Sydney indicates that the board there have even less patience.

Perth Glory

Perth have had 5 full time coaches so far (with 2 interim managers) and I’m not including Kenny Lowe, who should get the top job, or whoever his predecessor may be but Perth need to be making their 6^th managerial appointment at some point soon. They have sacked all 5 of their managers since the A-League began^ putting them at a sacking every 1.7 seasons – the highest sack rate in the league – and their most recent sacking was just a few weeks ago when they let go of Alistair Edwards. So as they look to appoint their next manager they would hope that nobody notices their 100% sacking history.

Brisbane Roar

The current league leaders have had 5 coaches since their inception sacking three of them for a sack rate of 2.833. Their most recent sacking was in December 2012, just over a year ago. From the outside looking in, they look to have made the right move in each sacking and in all but one case, made the decision in a timely manner to stop things festering and dragging the club down. But the fact remains they have only sacked one fewer coach than Sydney in the same amount of time. Interestingly, 2 of the 3 coaches that the Roar have sacked are both currently employed by Sydney FC…

Adelaide United

The Reds have had 5 head coaches, but their time under Valkanis did start to push the boundaries of what could be considered an “interim” coach given he was in charge for 10 games which is over a third of a season in this league. They have sacked 3 of their coaches and it was almost 4 but Kosmina saved them the embarrassment of having to sack him a second time after he left because of the way he was being treated by the club. If I was trying to skew the figures in my arguments favour, I would claim this under the Littbarski rule, but I don’t need to do that. 3 sackings is still only one less than Sydney for a sack rate of 2.833 with their last sacking being 2 years and one month ago.

Melbourne Victory

Melbourne are another to have had 5 full time managers in their 8.5 seasons and have sacked 3 so the same statistics as above. Interestingly, however, their FIRST sacking didn’t come until March 2011, meaning that they have sacked 3 coaches in the last 3 years. Again, not a picture of stability of late but have somehow avoided a reputation.

Central Coast Mariners

The one team that has been in the league since its inception that has never sacked one of their three managers. They have had relative success over their years meaning that the issue has never really had to be addressed. They are clearly an outlier in this league and more power to them.

So the sum of all this tells me that the Sydney coaching position is no more unstable than any other in the league. Perth have fired more managers and the Jets have fired as many as Sydney. Every foundation team bar the Mariners has fired at least one head coach, and many of them more than one, since Sydney last fired theirs and any coach would be mad to turn down the opportunity at Moore Park, given the resources at their command.

Of course these figures change if the axe falls on Farina in the next few weeks and I’m sure the same hack writers will pull out the same old clichés to stick up for their mates if it does. Just remember that the facts don’t really support them, and it’s a poor reason to keep a manager anyway.

 

ROUND 16 PICKS

The above article sees the tips relegated to a footnote for the picks this week. I went out on a limb last week and picked the Heart, which came off, but it was my only correct tip for the week meaning I start this week at -$24.85

$2 on Brisbane to beat Wellington (at $1.48)

$2 on a draw between Adelaide and Heart (at $3.65)

$2 on Newcastle to beat Central Coast (at $4.50)

$2 on a draw between Victory and Sydney (at $3.80)

$2 on Wanderers to beat Glory (at $1.60)

Gamble Responsibly

 

 

 

*Interestingly, I haven’t heard it at all during the recent string of losses and disappointing play. I don’t know if that is due to the fact that Farina is now, only a few months later, actually one of the longest tenured coaches in the league, or they don’t feel the need to mock Sydney fans because it may actually be the right decision.

**It also began a string of poor decisions that are still going today.

***Granted, Van Egmond was on his second go, but still.

^Obviously I’m not counting before the A-League, I’m trying to compare Apples with Apples

A League Picks – Round 15

A good week last week as 3 of my 5 bets came in, winning me a whopping $12.90!

I start the ledger this week at -$17.30

Glory v Roar

The Roar are away from home so we can expect them to turn on the style again over in Perth*. The Glory were made to look good by an increasingly abysmal Heart side last week, so the only consideration here is the chance of an upset that could throw the Roar’s side into a tailspin. I just don’t see it. $2 on the Roar to win (at $1.90)

Heart v Jets

So the thing is, at some point in the rest of their existence, the Melbourne Heart Football Club is going to win a match. And each week that goes by that they remain in this mire of mediocrity and failure, the higher the betting odds should get for them to win. But my cursory knowledge of the law of averages also tells me that as each week goes by, they are one week closer to getting that win. So the best way to cash in on this is to start picking Melbourne to win each week, but make sure you don’t start too early. I mean if I put a dollar on them every week and they don’t win for another 10 weeks, then I’m not going to come out on top. Their opponent week to week is irrelevant until they win, and the Jets are generally pretty irrelevant so this is clearly the week to start. So with that solid logic behind me, I’m putting a dollar on the Heart to win (at $2.45)**

Phoenix v Victory

The master and apprentice thing has been overdone between Ernie Merrick and the human hand grenade Kevin Muscat, and I’d be more than happy to oblige if Merrick weren’t such an easy master to overtake. The point is moot. Muscat appears to be an almost decent football manager. Merrick appears to be a P.E. teacher masquerading as a football manager. Wellington look to have levelled out after their recent resurgence and Melbourne should be riding a high after their big midweek win over the Wanderers. However the tired legs and the jetlag from a trip across the Tasman makes me see this one ending all square. $2 on the draw (at $3.35)

Sydney v Mariners

By the same token as “Heart have to win at some point” my gut is telling me that the Mariners’ good fortunes have to run out at some point too. They are nowhere near good enough to have lost only 3 games from 14 this season. In spite of an improved (but still not great) performance against Western Sydney last week, a loss at home to the Mariners*** on Saturday would mean that Sydney’s only win in the last 7 weeks had come against the hapless Heart. This would surely have to mean that the pressure on Farina would intensify to levels almost matching the early season speculation of his impending dismissal. So obviously this will be the week that Sydney jag a win and the Frank Defenders get to have their gloat in the sun. $3 on Sydney to win (at $2.40)

Adelaide v Wanderers

I’m not quite sure what to make of either of these teams at the moment. Have Adelaide finally learn to play Gomball? Are they just on a roll? Is this their big push for finals football? And what about the Wanderers? Has their boring style been found out? Is the rotation policy really the reason they’ve been in and out of form? Has the bubble burst? Either way, neither of these sides resembles who they were even 3 weeks ago let alone last season, or either of the times they’ve met this season. So I’m going to have to put my final $2 on over 2.5 goals to be scored (at $1.92)

That leaves the ledger at -$27.30

Gamble Responsibly

 

 

*Brisbane have gained 18 of their 30 points away from home this season. The three teams in equal 5^th have 19 points from ALL of their games.

**I may have found my first flaw in this plan. Heart are somehow favourites for this match…

***Who have struggled at Allianz of late, having not won there in over 2 years.

A League Picks – Round 14

After a holiday sabbatical, I’m glad to be back and ready to give you the worst tips the A-League can offer!

I start the week at -$20.20 after getting one of my three tips right before Christmas.

Here are this week’s tips.

Newcastle v Victory

The Jets have continued to not impress me at all this season after losing to 2 mediocre teams over the Christmas period. Their opponents from Melbourne will have their tails between their legs this week after their title ambitions were put well and truly in their place by a rampant Brisbane side whose 3 – 0 win didn’t show the full dominance that they had over the Victory. The dip in quality in this year’s league is saving the pressure from being applied to the walking studs up tackle, Kevin Muscat, but the Victory fans won’t put up with too many more embarrassments and are sure to have some sort of protest again soon. These two teams played each other just one month ago in Melbourne with Newcastle winning, and now the Novacastrians get to play them on their own turf, but I fear that the other shoe may have finally dropped on the Jets’ season. I’m putting a dollar on a draw here (at $3.40)

Perth v Heart

The Aloisi era finally came to an end at Christmas, but the Melbourne side still haven’t been able to find a win. Astonishingly, they only won 5 of the 26 games they played in the calendar year of 2013, and 2 of those came in the first week of January! The club has forgotten how to win, but with a new, old coach in van’t Schipp at the helm they will be looking to steady the ship and get back in the winner’s circle for the first time since February – 11 months ago – and it will have to happen at some point. Right? Standing in their way is the Perth Glory. One way to look at Perth’s season is that the BEST team they have beaten is Sydney FC. That’s right, the BEST team. They have managed to beat almost all of the teams around and below them at least once*but have struggled against any team of even middling quality. Unfortunately for Melbourne, they are not yet a team of middling quality. I have to go with a dollar on Perth (at $2.00)

Brisbane v Adelaide

This match is the team that plays the most attractive football in the league against the team that wants to play the most attractive football in the league. United have made no secret of the fact that they want to be doing precisely what the Roar are doing** however it is also abundantly clear that while they have made some strides in recent weeks, they are a long way from being able to perform at the level of the league leaders and certainly have a long way to go in terms of composure. I don’t see them being able to stand up to the pressure that Brisbane will put on them and Gombau will have his eyes closed for much of this one, so I have to put my $2 on Brisbane by 2 or more goals (at $2)

NRMAIWSW v Sydney FC

The sold out Sydney derby*** could not have two more contrasting teams or organisations competing for bragging rights. The Wanderers are a highly organized unit with the best defence in the league and a clear direction for the future. They have a hands on coach who was considered for the Socceroos job, a stable management team and a fan base with a poor reputation. Sydney are the most unorganized football team on earth,  with the second worst defence in the league and no long term planning at all. They have a coach with a reputation for taking half days that was fired from the Socceroos job, a merry-go-round of management and a fan base that are thought of like this. It’s what makes derbies so great. I don’t think I’m going to like the result on Saturday night, but the part I’m going to like even less is the lack of ripples that it sends through Sydney’s management team and ownership group. Five dollars on the Wanderers to win (at $1.50)

Wellington v CCM

3 consecutive wins for Wellington has seen them surge from 9^th to 9^th but a win this week could see them potentially move up to 7^th. Dizzy stuff. Meanwhile the Mariners keep plugging away with slightly above average defence, slightly below average attack, and a lack of consistency. In this league it is enough to see them sitting in third.  I have no idea what will happen in this match so I’m going for a more exotic bet and putting a dollar on under 1.5 goals being scored (at $3.15)

Welcome back for the new year ladies and gentlemen.

Let me know what bets you have going for the weekend.

Gamble Responsibly.

*The exception being Adelaide who they have failed to beat in three attempts during Adelaide’s teething period…

**Really, anyone that doesn’t want to be doing what the Roar are doing is clinically insane.

***That should actually get the Wanderers a REAL sell out for the 20,741 seat stadium that has “sold out” several times this season but hasn’t cracked a crowd of 16,300 all year. That’s not even 80% full. The hype machine is strong in Western Sydney.

A League Picks – Round 11 kind of…

I start the week at – $17 exactly after my lock of the week came in last week again and saved my blushes.

We have an unusual week this week. As I write this, the markets for the Sydney v Wellington game has been suspended. As has the market for the Wanderers v Mariners. I’m sure this is due to the match between the Mariners and Wellington that is happening right now, But I wait for no man nor Spirit.

I’m going to spread my $10 through the remaining 3 matches.

Brisbane v Newcastle

I know it seems like I’m just putting all my money on Brisbane every week, but they keep coming up against some pretty ordinary teams.* Newcastle are no exception here. A waterlogged pitch handed the Jets a miracle when these sides last met at Turton Rd, so with the Roar in league best form and playing at home, I’d be silly not to put $6 on the Roar (at $1.53) to take this one.

Heart v Victory

It’s a funny old league this one. 3 different teams (in a 10 team league) have had to look for a new coach since the start of the season (only 10 rounds ago) yet somehow the 2 teams that have not won a single game in 10 both still have their jobs. I have to rename John Aloisi “The Cat” because he’s had to have had at least 9 lives just this season, and every week he misses out on a win, but somehow keeps his job. He’s looked out of his depth for a LONG time and has shown no signs of turning back. But the one game that he has done ok in over his career is the Tardby. He comes up against Muscat who is just treading water with one of the best teams in the league, but is very vulnerable to conceding an early goal and going to pieces. I’m going with an insurance bet here and putting $1 on the Heart (at $4) and $1 on the draw (at $3.55)

Perth v Adelaide

Some brilliant scheduling this week sees Adelaide face Perth for the third time this season, before they face Sydney FC or Wellington even once. Bravo FFA. With Jacob Burns FC setting up the most awkward change rooms that the Edwards brothers been in since the last time their Dad and sole reason for being in a team was sacked, I’m not sure if the Glory are going to capitulate or bounce back this week. On the other hand Gombau’s eyebrows got some colour back thanks to some slick play and Liam Reddy reverting to type. I think United are still a bit off from finding their best form though, so I’m putting my $2 this week on the draw (at $3.40)

I won’t be doing my bets for round 12 next week because it’s Christmas, and I have a life. 

But please let me know your bets for this round or any round in the comments below, or by tweeting me at @BadALeagueBets

Good Luck and Gamble Responsibly

 

 

 

*To be fair a large chunk of the competition has been pretty ordinary so far. Hence Sydney and Newcastle sitting in the top 6 comfortably.

A League Picks – Round 10

Last week’s lock of the week was the only one I got right, but due to my new strategy, I won more money than I laid out, so I’ll be sticking with the strategy for another week.

I start this week with the ledger at -$17.98

Victory v Perth

How the mighty have fallen. Once considered title favourites while Ange was in charge, Kevin Muscat’s (officially the dirtiest player the world has seen) reign has seen them fall to equal 6^th with only 7 points gained from a possible 18 in his time in charge. If he can’t beat Perth this week, questions will begin to be asked of how much he learned from Postecoglu, and how much he learned from Mehmet. Perth are sitting around about where I would expect them to be given their goal scoring woes. As mentioned in Round 8, Perth are suffering from “Sydney FC Syndrome” and last week was the first time in 11 matches that they scored more than one goal in a match. All that said, I’m going to back against Muscat and put a dollar on the draw (at $3.85)

Wellington v Brisbane

Has to be the lock of the week. Equal last hosting first. A glorified P.E. Teacher against a well-rounded tactician. A team that has conceded 13 goals in 8 matches against a team that has scored 17 in 9. Maltese International Manny Muscat against anyone. $6 on Brisbane to win (at $1.83)

Adelaide v Mariners

The Reds haven’t had much luck this season. But they also haven’t been very good. Even if the ball had fallen their way a bit more often they’d still be in 8^th. The Mariners were played into form by Sydney FC last week, and they simply have too many players that know how to win.* I’m putting a dollar on the half/fulltime double of Draw/Mariners (at $5.00)

Jets v Wanderers

**

A team that somehow keeps managing to grab wins against a team that has taken just 2 points from a possible 9 in the last 3 weeks. In spite of still sitting in 3^rd spot, I simply can’t believe that the listless side that looked SO poor against an average Sydney FC side twice already this year are anything near a real contender. All the pressure is on the Wanderers here in the middle of a mini slump at the moment and playing a team that should be an easy win regardless of the venue. I’m still not convinced of Western Sydney’s ability to handle pressure, and it will only increase if this slump continues. I think they’ll need some luck to win this. I’m going to put my dollar on a draw (at $3.30)

Sydney v Heart

Only one team has won more games than Sydney FC this season. But only two teams have lost more than them too. Sydney’s dream draw of late continues as they play the competitions bottom team who are still winless after 9 rounds, and haven’t won away from home since a Hitler moustache was called a Charlie Chaplin moustache. The last time these two teams played, Heart looked like a park football team, but their form has improved while Sydney has regressed. I’m putting my final dollar on a big upset here with the Heart to win (at $4.35) and a whole heap of pressure to fall back on Frank Farina.

The ledger sits at -$27.98

Gamble Responsibly

 

 

*Just on this, I’m not sure that Moss has actually done anything yet. They look exactly the same as they always have, just not as good, because they’ve lost some players. Jury is still out on him as a manager for mine.

**How amazing is Mark Bridge’s head in this photo?

A League Picks – Round 9

A new week and a new strategy.

My win last week was $8.82 leaving the ledger at -$19.20 heading into round nine.

So I’m going to have to start taking drastic measures to get myself back to at least even.

It’s time for strategy number…I’ve lost count.

Adelaide v Brisbane

My lock of the week this week. Adelaide’s defence has more holes in it than the plot of Lost* and Brisbane are the right team to poke through them. The only real question here is how much lighter can Gombau’s eyebrows get? I’m putting $6 on the Roar to take this one (at $1.87). Unfortunately there is no current market on the eyebrows.

Perth v Wellington

The Distance Derby is on again and this time there is even less at stake than normal. Both sides sit outside the top 6, deservedly, and I’d be surprised if the Phoenix even bring their media manager and kit man let alone any fans for this match against their “traditional rivals”. So in order to put SOME sort of intrigue into this match, I’m going for a more exotic bet. I’m putting a dollar on the first goal being scored between minute 31 and the end of the first half (at $4.35)

Wanderers v Heart

The two ‘other’ teams from the countries two biggest cities. Some ridiculous refereeing and wonder strikes saved Aloisi from another defeat and what would SURELY be the seasons first head coach sacking last week, but overall the Heart showed little improvement. Here they come up against a Wanderers team in their first vague slump, but NRMAIWSWFC are back in the one place that they are a dominant force. NSW. I’m going to pick the score here as Western Sydney 2 to beat Melbourne 1 (at $8.00)

Mariners v Sydney FC

There is a fair bit going on at the Mariners of late and that could see them a little unsettled, and the result of this match could see them sky rocket up the ladder (with a game in hand) or plummet out of the top 6 and need to have a hard look at themselves. On the other hand, Sydney have just come off a record winning streak (a whole 4 matches) against mostly awful opposition that has ‘supercoach’ Farina breathing a little easier. The result of this match could tell us a lot about BOTH teams. But I’m going for a first goalscorer here and putting a dollar on McGlinchey (at $8.00)**

Victory v Jets

Not even career ender Kevin Muscat could turn this teams fortunes around so quickly that they would lose at home to the Jets…Right? the final dollar will go on Melbourne to win by 2 or more (at $2.90)

Ledger at -$29.20

Gamble Responsibly

 

 

*There’s a timely reference for you. Lost. Cutting edge stuff here.

**Amazingly, with Delps out, Sydney don’t have a single player paying less than $10 to score first. CCM on the other hand, have 7 players paying less than $10. Also, in spite of his multi week ban, Tiago is still listed as an option.

A League Picks – Round 8

With just 2 of my minor bets coming through last week I start this round in a poor position with just -$18.02 on the ledger.

Time for some new tactics

Mariners v Victory

Melbourne haven’t travelled well since Muscat took the reigns losing both away games under the thug in a suit, and he appears to be in need of an experiences assistant. Luckily the coach he is facing this weekend is one and with both teams looking fairly evenly matched, it may come down to tactics. I’m going with the experience of Moss and putting a dollar on the Mariners to win (at $2.05)

Brisbane v Perth

No matter what I do, I just can’t quite shake the feeling that there is something about being at the Perth Glory Football Club that turns you from a talented footballer into a meandering mess. I call it the Sydney FC syndrome. Brisbane on the other hand is riding their momentum to first place in the league. They may have peaked too early, and it was more than a little concerning that they celebrated last weeks victory over the Wanderers like a finals match, but they will surely have too much for Perth at home in this one. I’m putting $6 on the Roar (at $1.47)

Sydney v Newcastle

Both of these teams should have vertigo by now with how undeservedly high they are on the table. The problem is, I can’t work out which team deserves to be here the least. SO I’m going to play it safe with a dollar bet on Del Piero to score first (at $5.50)

Phoenix v Wanderers

Wellington gave Western Sydney a run for their money the last time these two teams met, and that was on the hallowed turf of Parramatta Stadium. This time at the Cake Tun, you would expect Wullington to go one further, and with the Wanderers travelling outside NSW 2 weeks in a row for the first time since January this year and only the second time in their history, I’m going to go for the big upset here and putting a dollar on Wellington to pick up the unlikeliest of wins (at $3.40)

Heart v Adelaide

It seems like every week we have a match where both coaches need to win to keep their job, yet every week Aloisi stays employed. Gombau won’t lose his job if United lose, but questions will begin to be asked of his philosophy and its effectiveness. Either way I’m putting my last dollar on Adelaide to come through with a close one goal win (at $4.60)

Ledger now at -$28.02

Gamble Responsibly