A League Picks – Round 3

It was all going so well.

Until just before full time in the Mariners v Melbourne Heart game on Saturday evening, I was on a winning run.

Then the rest of the weekend happened.

I won $3.40 from the Adelaide draw, and lost all four other bets, leaving my account at $-14.30 after just 2 weeks. Somebody stop me!

At least this week my bets were close, but close doesn’t win you any money.

So on to this weeks tips

Victory v Brisbane

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Who knows what will happen here? These two sides have had Jeckyll and Hyde performances so far this season and when you add in Melbourne losing their coach, this game could go any way. I’m going to have my insurance bet on this game with a dollar on Melbourne to win at home (at $2.60) and a dollar on a draw (at $3.40)

Mariners v Adelaide

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United are currently sitting in second position on the ladder, but the reality is that last weeks 2-2 draw should have been a 3-1 loss. On top of that, the Mariners will be smarting that they haven’t won a game yet this season (in fact, none of last season’s top 3 teams have won a game so far this year. Haven’t lost one either though). The Mariners work better out of the spotlight, and the smaller home crowd this week should work to their advantage. I’m going to have a dollar on Central Coast to win 2-1 (at $8.00)

Sydney v Wanderers

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The big game of the week will see a sellout crowd watch last rounds whipping boys (who are somehow still in 3rd spot!) go up against the competitions media darlings, and the darlings are well overdue for a win. Currently on a run of 3 competitive matches without a win, the Wanderers will be desperate to take home the full three points from the derby match as questions begin to be asked of their ability to perform under pressure. Sydney supporters will say that the Sky Blues’ home performances have been almost inexplicably good under Frank Farina, but the one team to win at the SFS since he took over is Western Sydney. So in classic gamblers form, I’m having a bit bet on this to try and save myself from circling the drain after round 3. I’m having $5 on the Wanderers to win (at $1.85)

Wellington v Newcastle

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As usual, the Phoenix are proving to be the surprise package of this years competition with their gallant performances against both Brisbane and the Wanderers. While Newcastle (along with Perth) took my jibe at the Melbourne derby being the most boring game of all time as a challenge and produced some form of footballing chloroform. I’m going for the full time/half time double for the Phoenix (at $3.00)

Perth v Heart

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I think both of these teams are adequately adequate. They are both fairly dull, and I don’t really have much to say about them. Given that of the 10 matches played so far there have been 6 draws, I’m going to have to put my last dollar on a dull Draw in this one (at $3.40)

Ledger currently sitting at -$24.30

Gamble Responsibly

 

Phew, got through the article without a Kalac joke.

A League Picks – Round 2

We’ll start off with a quick assessment of just how far off I was with most of my bets last week. I said Sydney would get thoroughly dominated, so of course, they had a convincing win. I said Santalab would be the first goal scorer for the Wanderers this season, so of course, he didn’t even start the match. I said that the biggest weaknesses of both the Melbourne sides was their defence, so of course they had a 0-0 draw. I said Wellington were awful and Brisbane would dominate both halves. So of course, they needed a late winner to seal the match. But the one ray of light at the end of my abysmal betting weekend was the triumph of Adelaide United with passing slicker than Zeljko Kalac’s hair*

So the bad news is, only one of my bets came through. The good news is, I miscalculated and didn’t spend my full $10, so I have extra money to bet this week!

So with the accidental $9 spend last week and the $2.30 win, the current ledger is sitting at -$6.70. Yay me.

Now, on to this week’s bets.

Adelaide v Victory

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These “traditional rivals” couldn’t be coming off more disparate performances. Adelaide looked brilliant, exciting and full of energy while the Victory looked lost, dull and half dead. That said, I definitely don’t expect a blow out here. The Reds are playing at home and I think that might be enough to give them the edge. I’m going to hedge my bets here and have a dollar on the draw (at $3.40) and a dollar on Adelaide to win by 1 goal (at $3.75)

Heart v Mariners

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Both teams here opened their accounts with a draw and neither gave too much away about how they would play this season. The Heart played in the most boring game of the round** and the Mariners were cagey, careful not to give too much away against last season’s Grand Final opponents. I like the Mariners here, but my actual $2 bet is going on a draw at half time into a Central Coast win at Full Time (at $4.50)

Roar v Sydney

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For the first time in many years, Sydney actually looked like they had a clear game plan other than to hang on for dear life and hope for the best. They only got a marginal pass mark in completing that game plan, but it’s a start. The Roar on the other hand turned their blistering pre-season form into a confused mess that Lindsay Lohan would be proud of. But the lure of historical dominance is very strong here. Sydney haven’t beaten Brisbane in Brisbane since the last time Kevin Rudd actually won an election. No matter the form, the Roar always have the wood on Sydney when they play at Lang Park. On top of that, a Sydney win here would mean that they would start a season with 2 consecutive wins, something they’ve only done once in their history (the year they won the double) so the money here is going to have to be 2 dollars on Brisbane to win by 1 goal (at $3.50) and a one dollar insurance bet on a draw (at $3.85)

Jets v Glory

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The Jets would need a colossal turn around in form after being dominated by an average Sydney team last week. Their attack was a shambles and the smart money would say that they are unlikely to fix that in a week. But I don’t have smart money. Also, Perth conceded the most goals of any team last week, so there are a lot of variables. I’m going to put two dollars on a straight Perth win (at $2.75)

WSW v Phoenix

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Against the Mariners, Western Sydney looked a little bit like they still hadn’t mentally gotten over the Grand Final loss. With a very similar squad to last season, the mental scars are still there. However, playing against the Phoenix in Australia is a different prospect altogether. In front of the inventors of atmosphere, the RBB, and what really should be a sell-out crowd given the membership numbers, I expect this to be a walk in the park for Western Sydney’s finest. I’m going with two dollars on the Wanderers to win by 2 goals or more (at $2.00)

 

So the ledger heading into the weekend is now at -$17.70. Hopefully I can make up some ground from last week.

Gamble Responsibly

 

 

*I’ve really got to stop targeting Spider. He’s a monster of a human and could eat me for breakfast. Sorry champ 🙂

**And possibly the history of time

A League Picks – Round 1

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I want to start this by saying that I’m not much of a gambler.
I don’t play the pokies, I don’t bet on horses unless it’s Melbourne Cup Day and my few forays into sports gambling have been average at best.

That said, I’m starting something here as a bit of an experiment to see how much money I would win* if I had $10 to bet each week on the 5 A-League games.

I can use that money however I see fit, that is it doesn’t have to mean a $2 bet on each game, but I’m using the idea of a minimum bet of $1 and I have to place some sort of bet on every game.

I’ll be using the TAB market at the time that I look it up – which will be as I write it**

The caveat is that if*** my total kitty at the end of a weekend is under $50, I lose and the game finishes.

So getting on with it –

SYDNEY FC v NEWCASTLE JETS

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There’s no point messing around here, either the TAB knows something I don’t or they’ve got Zeljko Kalac setting the odds. In spite of encouraging home form last season, Sydney FC have been inconceivably awful during pre-season, and that was before Anthony Crea inflicted the team with an injury list that would make Harry Kewell blush

I’m putting $4 on Newcastle to win (at $3.85) and $1 on the draw (at $3.40) in case an actual confirmed miracle happens and we concede less than 2 goals.

CENTRAL COAST MARINERS v NRMA INSURANCE WESTERN SYDNEY WANDERERS

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I truly have no idea what is going to happen here, but I do have a feeling that after embarrassing themselves in the first free to air A-League game of the year, Sydney are going to have some salt rubbed in their wound when former Sydney nobody Brendan Santalab scores, so I’ll put a dollar in him to be first goal scorer (at $8.50)

MELBOURNE VICTORY v MELBOURNE HEART

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After a full off season to rub his smarmy faced style all over the Victory players faces, I think they’ll be a decent side this year, but their biggest weakness is still going to be their defence. On top of that, Heart lost their marquee defender and look to be still getting used to each other on the park, which is going to make for at least 4 goals in this game for mine. So I’m going for $1 on the Over 3.5 Goals to be scored in this match (at $2.80)

WELLINGTON PHOENIX v BRISBANE ROAR

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The Roar have been on fire this pre-season, scoring goals at will, while Wellington literally signed 4 players just this week. I’m actually not kidding at all. 4 players. This week. I’m going for Brisbane in the Half/Full Time double (at $3.85)

ADELAIDE UNITED v PERTH GLORY

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I’ve not seen or heard much at all about Perth this off season, but for the first time in a long time, they appear to be going into a season with a manager that has seen a football before in his life. But on the other hand I’ve heard nothing but positive reviews of Adelaide under their new coach. So my final dollar will go on Adelaide to win (at $2.30)

Which leaves my current ledger at -$10.00

Gamble responsibly.

 

 

 

*That is, how much money I will almost certainly lose

**I know, TAB has terrible odds, IDGAF, it’s what I’m using.

***read; once