A League Picks – Round 15

A good week last week as 3 of my 5 bets came in, winning me a whopping $12.90!

I start the ledger this week at -$17.30

Glory v Roar

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The Roar are away from home so we can expect them to turn on the style again over in Perth*. The Glory were made to look good by an increasingly abysmal Heart side last week, so the only consideration here is the chance of an upset that could throw the Roar’s side into a tailspin. I just don’t see it. $2 on the Roar to win (at $1.90)

Heart v Jets

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So the thing is, at some point in the rest of their existence, the Melbourne Heart Football Club is going to win a match. And each week that goes by that they remain in this mire of mediocrity and failure, the higher the betting odds should get for them to win. But my cursory knowledge of the law of averages also tells me that as each week goes by, they are one week closer to getting that win. So the best way to cash in on this is to start picking Melbourne to win each week, but make sure you don’t start too early. I mean if I put a dollar on them every week and they don’t win for another 10 weeks, then I’m not going to come out on top. Their opponent week to week is irrelevant until they win, and the Jets are generally pretty irrelevant so this is clearly the week to start. So with that solid logic behind me, I’m putting a dollar on the Heart to win (at $2.45)**

Phoenix v Victory

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The master and apprentice thing has been overdone between Ernie Merrick and the human hand grenade Kevin Muscat, and I’d be more than happy to oblige if Merrick weren’t such an easy master to overtake. The point is moot. Muscat appears to be an almost decent football manager. Merrick appears to be a P.E. teacher masquerading as a football manager. Wellington look to have levelled out after their recent resurgence and Melbourne should be riding a high after their big midweek win over the Wanderers. However the tired legs and the jetlag from a trip across the Tasman makes me see this one ending all square. $2 on the draw (at $3.35)

Sydney v Mariners

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By the same token as “Heart have to win at some point” my gut is telling me that the Mariners’ good fortunes have to run out at some point too. They are nowhere near good enough to have lost only 3 games from 14 this season. In spite of an improved (but still not great) performance against Western Sydney last week, a loss at home to the Mariners*** on Saturday would mean that Sydney’s only win in the last 7 weeks had come against the hapless Heart. This would surely have to mean that the pressure on Farina would intensify to levels almost matching the early season speculation of his impending dismissal. So obviously this will be the week that Sydney jag a win and the Frank Defenders get to have their gloat in the sun. $3 on Sydney to win (at $2.40)

Adelaide v Wanderers

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I’m not quite sure what to make of either of these teams at the moment. Have Adelaide finally learn to play Gomball? Are they just on a roll? Is this their big push for finals football? And what about the Wanderers? Has their boring style been found out? Is the rotation policy really the reason they’ve been in and out of form? Has the bubble burst? Either way, neither of these sides resembles who they were even 3 weeks ago let alone last season, or either of the times they’ve met this season. So I’m going to have to put my final $2 on over 2.5 goals to be scored (at $1.92)

That leaves the ledger at -$27.30

Gamble Responsibly

 

 

*Brisbane have gained 18 of their 30 points away from home this season. The three teams in equal 5th have 19 points from ALL of their games.

**I may have found my first flaw in this plan. Heart are somehow favourites for this match…

***Who have struggled at Allianz of late, having not won there in over 2 years.

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