We’ll start off with a quick assessment of just how far off I was with most of my bets last week. I said Sydney would get thoroughly dominated, so of course, they had a convincing win. I said Santalab would be the first goal scorer for the Wanderers this season, so of course, he didn’t even start the match. I said that the biggest weaknesses of both the Melbourne sides was their defence, so of course they had a 0-0 draw. I said Wellington were awful and Brisbane would dominate both halves. So of course, they needed a late winner to seal the match. But the one ray of light at the end of my abysmal betting weekend was the triumph of Adelaide United with passing slicker than Zeljko Kalac’s hair*
So the bad news is, only one of my bets came through. The good news is, I miscalculated and didn’t spend my full $10, so I have extra money to bet this week!
So with the accidental $9 spend last week and the $2.30 win, the current ledger is sitting at -$6.70. Yay me.
Now, on to this week’s bets.
Adelaide v Victory
These “traditional rivals” couldn’t be coming off more disparate performances. Adelaide looked brilliant, exciting and full of energy while the Victory looked lost, dull and half dead. That said, I definitely don’t expect a blow out here. The Reds are playing at home and I think that might be enough to give them the edge. I’m going to hedge my bets here and have a dollar on the draw (at $3.40) and a dollar on Adelaide to win by 1 goal (at $3.75)
Heart v Mariners
Both teams here opened their accounts with a draw and neither gave too much away about how they would play this season. The Heart played in the most boring game of the round** and the Mariners were cagey, careful not to give too much away against last season’s Grand Final opponents. I like the Mariners here, but my actual $2 bet is going on a draw at half time into a Central Coast win at Full Time (at $4.50)
Roar v Sydney
For the first time in many years, Sydney actually looked like they had a clear game plan other than to hang on for dear life and hope for the best. They only got a marginal pass mark in completing that game plan, but it’s a start. The Roar on the other hand turned their blistering pre-season form into a confused mess that Lindsay Lohan would be proud of. But the lure of historical dominance is very strong here. Sydney haven’t beaten Brisbane in Brisbane since the last time Kevin Rudd actually won an election. No matter the form, the Roar always have the wood on Sydney when they play at Lang Park. On top of that, a Sydney win here would mean that they would start a season with 2 consecutive wins, something they’ve only done once in their history (the year they won the double) so the money here is going to have to be 2 dollars on Brisbane to win by 1 goal (at $3.50) and a one dollar insurance bet on a draw (at $3.85)
Jets v Glory
The Jets would need a colossal turn around in form after being dominated by an average Sydney team last week. Their attack was a shambles and the smart money would say that they are unlikely to fix that in a week. But I don’t have smart money. Also, Perth conceded the most goals of any team last week, so there are a lot of variables. I’m going to put two dollars on a straight Perth win (at $2.75)
WSW v Phoenix
Against the Mariners, Western Sydney looked a little bit like they still hadn’t mentally gotten over the Grand Final loss. With a very similar squad to last season, the mental scars are still there. However, playing against the Phoenix in Australia is a different prospect altogether. In front of the inventors of atmosphere, the RBB, and what really should be a sell-out crowd given the membership numbers, I expect this to be a walk in the park for Western Sydney’s finest. I’m going with two dollars on the Wanderers to win by 2 goals or more (at $2.00)
So the ledger heading into the weekend is now at -$17.70. Hopefully I can make up some ground from last week.
*I’ve really got to stop targeting Spider. He’s a monster of a human and could eat me for breakfast. Sorry champ 🙂
**And possibly the history of time